Catalist's 2024 election report reveals concerning shifts among key voter groups like youth, men, and voters of color. However, it offers optimism for 2026, stating 'demographics are not destiny' and urging strategic adaptation for future campaigns.
The Catalist voter file view of census tract-level election results for the 2024 general election. Areas with a stronger Democratic lean are blue while areas with a stronger Republican lean are red. The height of the columns represent population size.
A recent comprehensive analysis of the 2024 Presidential Election, conducted by Catalist and outlined in their "What Happened in 2024" report, provides a detailed voter-file based view of the electorate. This report, drawing on public vote history, precinct-level election results, Census data, and Catalist's proprietary modeling and polling, aims to estimate the composition and partisan leanings of the electorate. While national turnout remained high at 64%, with even higher rates in battleground states, the Democratic Kamala Harris/Tim Walz ticket ultimately secured a narrow popular vote plurality, sweeping major swing states. However, the analysis reveals concerning shifts in voter behavior that demand strategic attention for future election cycles, particularly leading into 2026.
The report highlights several key trends that signal a departure from established patterns, causing apprehension about the composition of the Democratic coalition:
Significant Shift Among Young Voters: After years of strong Democratic support, voters under 30 showed the largest decline in Democratic support of any age group, dropping from 61% in 2020 to 55% in 2024. This trend was notably pronounced among young Black men, whose support for Democrats fell from 85% to 75%, and young Latino men, experiencing a dramatic decline from 63% to 47%. These shifts represent a considerable challenge for future Democratic campaigns.
Widening Partisan Gender Gap: The divergence in partisan preferences between men and women expanded in 2024. While women largely maintained their support for Harris (55%), men's support for Democrats dropped substantially, from 48% for Biden in 2020 to a record low of 42% for Harris in 2024. This pervasive shift was observed across all age groups and contributes significantly to the overall outcome.
Continued Erosion of Support Among Voters of Color: While voters of color remain a crucial part of the Democratic coalition, their support for Democrats has steadily eroded over the past three presidential elections. The highest drops from 2020 to 2024 were observed among Latino voters (9 points), followed by Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) groups (4 points), and Black voters (3 points). These declines were particularly concentrated among younger cohorts of voters, especially young men.
Irregular and New Voters Showed Reduced Democratic Lean: A striking finding is that voters who didn't participate in 2020 but voted in 2024, referred to as "new voters", supported the Democratic candidate below 50% for the first time in Catalist's dataset. This group has historically leaned Democratic, making this a critical concern for refreshing the party's coalition. Similarly, "irregular voters," defined as those who missed at least one of the last four general elections, swung significantly against Democrats in 2024.
Decline in Democratic Support in Urban Areas: The report also highlights a decline in Democratic support in urban areas, particularly outside battleground states. This trend intersects with the observed declines among younger voters and voters of color, indicating a softening of traditional Democratic strongholds in cities.
Despite these challenges, Catalist's report emphasizes that "demographics are not destiny". This perspective offers a strong basis for optimism, suggesting that strategic adaptation and experimentation can effectively address these trends for 2026. The ability to reach voters has expanded, even amidst a fragmented media landscape, presenting new opportunities for engagement.
Here are five crucial takeaways for 2026 campaigns that provide a reason for optimism:
Re-engage Disaffected Young Voters: The significant swing among young voters, especially young men of color, necessitates targeted outreach and compelling messages to re-establish and strengthen support from this demographic.
Strategic Outreach to Men: The widening partisan gender gap demands a comprehensive understanding of the factors driving male voters away from Democrats. Campaigns must develop specific strategies to effectively engage men across all demographics and build pathways to regain their support.
Sustained Mobilization for Irregular and New Voters: Given that new voters no longer consistently lean Democratic, and irregular voters swung against the party, a renewed focus on both persuasion and robust mobilization for these less consistent voters is paramount for refreshing the Democratic coalition.
Adapt Urban Campaign Strategies: The observed declines in Democratic support in urban areas, even in traditional strongholds, calls for a re-evaluation of campaign approaches in these critical population centers to prevent further erosion of support.
Embrace Bold Experimentation in a Fragmented Media Landscape: Effective communication is crucial in a shifting media environment. Campaigns must innovate their outreach methods and embrace experimentation to effectively capture attention and build winning coalitions.
The fundamental challenge for Democrats in 2026 involves a dual strategy: simultaneously convincing consistent voters and refreshing the pool of rotating, less engaged, but traditionally Democratic-leaning voters. This requires a combination of persuasion (explaining why to vote for a candidate) and mobilization (encouraging and reminding voters how to cast a ballot). By taking these insights to heart and embracing innovative strategies, there is a clear path forward for 2026 campaigns to build stronger, more resilient coalitions and reverse concerning trends.
